What are Forward Rates Models? Forward rates models are theoretical frameworks used to analyze and predict the expected value of economic variables in the future. Forward rates usually refer to either the forward interest rate or the forward exchange rate. Expectations Hypothesis Consider the following example: An N-year government bond costs Q(t)N in period t…
What is Framing Bias? Framing bias occurs when people make a decision based on the way the information is presented, as opposed to just on the facts themselves. The same facts presented in two different ways can lead to people making different judgments or decisions. In behavioral finance, investors may react to a particular opportunity…
What is Loss Aversion? Loss aversion is a tendency in behavioral finance where investors are so fearful of losses that they focus on trying to avoid a loss more so than on making gains. The more one experiences losses, the more likely they are to become prone to loss aversion. Research on loss aversion shows…
What is Herd Mentality Bias? In behavioral finance, herd mentality bias refers to investors’ tendency to follow and copy what other investors are doing. They are largely influenced by emotion and instinct, rather than by their own independent analysis. This guide provides examples of how investors may succumb to herd bias, as part of behavioral…
What is Overconfidence Bias? Overconfidence bias is a tendency to hold a false and misleading assessment of our skills, intellect, or talent. In short, it’s an egotistical belief that we’re better than we actually are. It can be a dangerous bias and is very prolific in behavioral finance and capital markets. This guide will unpack…
What is the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA)? The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) is a trade collective made up of more than 800 participants from almost 60 countries around the world. In 1992, the association developed a standardized contract called the ISDA Master Agreement for derivatives transactions. The group works to establish…
What is Representativeness Heuristic? Representativeness heuristic bias occurs when the similarity of objects or events confuses people’s thinking regarding the probability of an outcome. People frequently make the mistake of believing that two similar things or events are more closely correlated than they actually are. This representativeness heuristic is a common information processing error in…
What is Hindsight Bias? Hindsight bias is the misconception, after the fact, that one “always knew” that they were right. Someone may also mistakenly assume that they possessed special insight or talent in predicting an outcome. This bias is an important concept in behavioral finance theory. Hindsight Bias Example Consider the 2008 financial crisis or…
What is Confirmation Bias? Confirmation bias is the tendency of people to pay close attention to information that confirms their belief and ignore information that contradicts it. This is a type of bias explored in behavioral finance. Our biases tend to limit our ability to make purely rational investment decisions. Confirmation Bias Example Let’s look…
