Dividend Growth Rate
The percentage growth rate of a company’s dividend achieved during a certain period of time
The percentage growth rate of a company’s dividend achieved during a certain period of time
The dividend growth rate is the percentage growth rate of a company’s dividend achieved during a certain period of time. Frequently, the dividend growth rate is calculated on an annual basis. However, if necessary, it can also be calculated on a quarterly or monthly basis.
The dividend growth rate is an important metric, particularly in determining a company’s long-term profitability. Since the dividends are distributed from the company’s earnings, one can assess and analyze its ability to sustain its profitability by comparing their growth rates among different periods.
Also, the dividend growth rate can be used in a security’s pricing. It is an essential variable in the Dividend Discount Model (DDM).
The dividend discount model is based on the idea that the company’s current stock price is equal to the net present value of the company’s future dividends. Mathematically, the dividend discount model is written using the following equation:
Where:
The simplest way to calculate the dividend growth rate is to find the growth rates for the distributed dividends.
Let’s say that ABC Corp. paid its shareholders dividends of $1.20 in year 1 and $1.70 in year 2. To determine the dividend’s growth rate from year 1 to year 2, we will use the following formula:
However, in some cases, such as in determining the dividend growth rate in the dividend discount model, we need to come up with the forward-looking growth rate.
Prior to studying the approaches, let’s consider the following example. Below is ABC Corp.’s schedule of paid dividends with the calculated annual dividend growth rates:
There are three main approaches to calculate the forward-looking growth rate:
a. Using the historical dividend growth rates, we can calculate the arithmetic average of the rates:
b. We can also use the company’s historical dividend growth rates to calculate the compound annual growth rate (CAGR):
2. Observe the dividend growth rate prevalent in the industry in which the company operates.
Imagine that the average dividend growth rate in the industry in which the ABC Corp. is operating is 4%. Then, we can use the said rate for ABC Corp.
The sustainable growth rate is the maximum growth rate that a company can sustain without external financing. The sustainable growth rate can be found using the following formula:
If ABC Corp.’s ROE is 15% and its retention ratio is 65%, then the company’s sustainable growth rate will be:
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