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How Do You Value a Mining Asset?
Mining assets are very challenging to value. Given the degree of geologic uncertainty around reserves and resources, it’s hard to know how much metal is actually in the ground. This guide to mining valuation will teach you all you need to know to value an asset!
The best way to value a mining asset or company is to build a discounted cash flow (DCF) model that takes into account a mining plan produced in a technical report (like a Feasibility Study). Without such a study available, one has to resort to more crude metrics.
Here is an overview of the main valuation methods used in the industry:
Price to Net Asset Value (P/NAV)
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)
Total Acquisition Cost (TAC)
EV/Resource ($/ounce)
Price to Net Asset Value (P/NAV)
P/NAV is the most important mining valuation metric, period.
“Net asset value” is the net present value (NPV) or discounted cash flow (DCF) value of all the future cash flow of the mining asset less any debt plus any cash. The model can be forecast to the end of the mine life and discounted back today because the technical reports have a very detailed Life of Mine plan (LOM).
The formula is as follows:
P/NAV = Market Capitalization / [NPV of all Mining Assets – Net Debt]
NAV is a sum-of-the-parts approach to valuation, in that each individual mining asset is independently valued and then added together. Corporate adjustments are made at the end, such as head office overhead or debt.
P/CF, or “P-cash flow” is also common but only used for producing mines, as it uses the current cash flow in that year, relative to the price in the security.
The ratio takes the adjusted cash flow of the business in a given year (i.e. 2018E) and compares that to the share price.
Operating cash flow is after interest (and thus an equity metric) it’s also after taxes, but it does not include capital expenditures.
The formula is as follows:
P/CF = Price per Share / Cash From Operations per Share
The EV/Resource ratio takes the enterprise value of the business and divides it by the total resources contained in the ground.
This metric is typically used for early-stage development projects, where there is not a lot of detailed information (not enough to do a DCF analysis).
The ratio is very basic and doesn’t take into account the capital cost to build the mine, nor the operating cost to extract the metal.
The formula is as follows:
EV/Resource = Enterprise Value / Total Ounces or Pounds of Metal Resource
TAC (Total Acquisition Cost)
Another commonly used metric in the mining industry for early-stage projects is Total Acquisition Cost or TAC.
This represents the cost to acquire the asset, build the mine and operate the mine, all on a per ounce basis.
An Example of Calculating TAC:
Suppose that a publicly-traded stock’s market capitalization is $100 million dollars, and it owns 1 million ounces.
I can, therefore, acquire the asset for $100 dollars per ounce.
I know that the cost of building the mine divided by the number of ounces will be $200 dollars per ounce.
I also know that the average all-and-sustaining cost to operate the mine is about $900 dollars per ounce. Based on some studies.
All the above combine for a $1,200 per ounce TAC.
The formula is as follows:
TAC = [Cost to Acquire + Cost to Build + Cost to Operate] / Total Ounces
CFI is a global provider of financial modeling courses and of the FMVA Certification. CFI’s mission is to help all professionals improve their technical skills. If you are a student or looking for a career change, the CFI website has many free resources to help you jumpstart your Career in Finance. If you are seeking to improve your technical skills, check out some of our most popular courses. Below are some additional resources for you to further explore:
CFI is a global provider of financial modeling courses and of the FMVA Certification. CFI’s mission is to help all professionals improve their technical skills. If you are a student or looking for a career change, the CFI website has many free resources to help you jumpstart your Career in Finance. If you are seeking to improve your technical skills, check out some of our most popular courses. Below are some additional resources for you to further explore:
Below is a break down of subject weightings in the FMVA® financial analyst program. As you can see there is a heavy focus on financial modeling, finance, Excel, business valuation, budgeting/forecasting, PowerPoint presentations, accounting and business strategy.
A well rounded financial analyst possesses all of the above skills!
Additional Questions & Answers
CFI is the global institution behind the financial modeling and valuation analyst FMVA® Designation. CFI is on a mission to enable anyone to be a great financial analyst and have a great career path. In order to help you advance your career, CFI has compiled many resources to assist you along the path.
In order to become a great financial analyst, here are some more questions and answers for you to discover:
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